CEDR Contractor Report 2016-1. Call 2012: Road owners adapting to Climate Change ROADAPT and CliPDaR projects

Abstract

Executive Summary Infrastructure is the backbone of our society. Citizens, companies and governments have come to rely on and expect uninterrupted availability of the road network. Climate change is an important topic within the context of designing, maintaining and operating traffic networks. Most transport infrastructure is intended to be available (in service) to the public for several decades. The life cycles of assets in transport are long enough to take the full strain that comes with climate change; however, climate impact is experienced on a small scale. Crops are destroyed by floods, timber is felled by heavy storms and infrastructure is devastated by various kinds of extreme events. The adaptation of road networks to a changing climate is one of the important issues that road authorities have begun to address and that needs to be further continued in the near future. The main objective of the Conference of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) Call 2012 “Road owners adapting to climate change” is to provide road owners with adaptation technologies and the models and tools to support decision-making concerning adaptation measures for the road infrastructure. The ROADAPT (Roads for today, Adapted for tomorrow) and CliPDaR (Design guideline for a transnational database of downscaled Climate Projection Data for Road impact models) projects form an integral part of this 2012 CEDR research programme. This report provides an analysis of the two projects and provides and overview of the final conference held in Brussels (on 27-28th October 2015). Concise recommendations are given on how to disseminate and implement the products of both projects. Outputs of the ROADAPT project Outputs of the ROADAPT project contain tools for risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and mitigation. The set consists of 6 guidelines and 3 case studies. The aim of the Guideline on the use of data (and data requirements) for the current and future climate for road infrastructure is to give background information and guidelines for tailored and consistent climate data and information for studies on the impact of the current and future climate for transnational road networks in Europe that are suitable for National Road Authorities (NRAs). The QuickScan methodology produces a first (quick) estimate of the major risks that can be associated with weather conditions both in the current climate and in the future, together with an action plan for adaptation. The list of top risks allows an NRA to consciously and effectively focus on specific areas in their network and/or on specific threats. Focusing on the top risks enables existing resources to be used more efficiently. The objective of the vulnerability assessment tool is to describe the efficient, existing tools for assessing vulnerabilities within road networks, with a focus on networks managed by NRAs. In addition, a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment methodology is suggested, based on and compatible with the RIMAROCC method. Using the vulnerability maps created in the process, it should be possible to combine these with detailed climate change projections. An extensive database that helps with the selection of adaptation measures and strategies for the mitigation of the effects of climate events was designed and set up within the ROADAPT project. The database contains more than 500 measures to support road owners with a decision-making tool. The method for Socio-economic impacts analysis is well interconnected with the methodology for the QuickScan and the vulnerability assessment, as the selection of the threats to be evaluated is based on their outputs. Selection of adaptation measures and strategies for mitigation is a 10-step approach for selecting an adaptation strategy containing a database. Page 3 Outputs of the CliPDaR project The deliverables of CliPDaR aim at enabling the road owner to make informed and efficient decisions on whether a proposed climate change scenario is suitable to derive particular adaptation measures or not. The information given enables customised climate change scenarios to be established, which help to answer particular problems regarding future transport infrastructure. This is accomplished by a guideline that helps decision makers through the whole process from the socio-economic scenarios to the adaptation measures to be put into effect. Ensemble approach to climate scenarios and the description of the downscaling of climate data are the highlights of the CliPDaR project. Outcomes of the projects and this report: The research focuses on awareness of the impact of climate change - crushing the stereotype that climate change is just another conspiracy theory. ROADAPT and CliPDaR together with some presentations from the final conference have provided hard evidence that climate change and extreme weather events are becoming more and more common, especially for coastal territories, and generates significant additional cost to infrastructure construction and maintenance. This awareness needs to be spread across the pool of decision makers. Experience of champions (Nordic countries, Germany, the Netherlands) Some countries have already set up adaptation strategies or are in the process of developing them. These are mostly countries that have begun to experience extreme weather events on a regular or seasonal basis. Presentations from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and the Netherlands clearly show that the road to adaptation to climate change is not easy but in the long term it will pay off. It should be noted that climate change mitigation is essential. An estimate from the Netherlands shows that if we do not keep the global temperature rise at 2°C but let it escalate to 5.5°C, the amount of the world’s GDP that will be necessary to mitigate the damage will rise from 2% to at least 8% by 2100. A large part of this report is devoted to recommendations within three main domains – dissemination, implementation and future research. Recommendations are found at the end of each of the project chapters. These are mainly dealing with each particular product or outcome, providing hints on implementation and future research. More general recommendations covering both projects and sometimes stretching outside the boundaries of particular projects are given at the end of this report. These recommendations are sub-divided into specific sections for dissemination - awareness creation, and implementation - strategy and action plan development, application in transport network management.